Highlights of Dexter’s June 2024 report
- Will July bring the next Bank of Canada Interest rate cut?
- Growth of listings slowed in June
- Buyer activity waned in June
- Is it really a balanced market?
- Expect to see new 15 to 20% less new listings in the fall
With a dash of uncertainty, a promise of more interest rate cuts yet to come and buyer hesitancy a main ingredient, June saw a real estate market with fewer sales and fewer new listings. Activity levels were less than ideal in June, and after a slower start to 2024 it’s not as if everyone needs a break. But that could lead to a more active fall market, like 2019 when the first half of the year produced less sales than the second half of the year, a consistent recovery leading up to the early part of 2020. And interest rates will be coming down, and even if it’s not as quick as we anticipated or as impactful in terms of affordability, it will still provide for a boost for some buyers who’ve been playing the waiting game.
There were 2,418 properties sold in Greater Vancouver in June, after seeing 2,733 sold in May, 2,831 sold in April and 2,415 properties sold in March this year. This was a 19% decrease from the 2,988 properties sold last year in June after a 20% decrease in May from the 3,411 properties sold in May 2023. For the second consecutive month, sales dropped month over month in the region. As new listings remained elevated in June, active listings continued to rise – albeit at a slower pace than the last two months prior to June. Hitting 3,000 sales in a month in Greater Vancouver remains elusive with that level being achieved only once in the last 26 months. The last time this happened was 2012/2013 and 2018/2019. Buyer demand continues to build up and that will eventually unleash into the market. We could see that happen at the beginning of this fall as interest rates continue to decline.
Sales in June were 24% below the 10-year average after being 20% below the 10-year average in May, 12% below the 10-year-average in April and 30% below the 10-year average in March. Consistently inconsistent is the theme of the current real estate market. Not just month by month but area by area. Some regions/product types are showing significant increases in listings while others are struggling to keep up with buyer demand. Sales in the first half of 2024 totaled 13,894 in Greater Vancouver, which was below the 14,529 in the first half of 2023 although higher than the 10,992 in the first half of 2019. If this market continues like 2019, we can expect to see a much busier fall. In fact, sales in July and August 2019 were higher than June that year. It’s not impossible to think that buyers are starting to take notice of the increase in listings and opportunities in the market.
With the increase in new listings and overall absorption remaining at 42%, the months of supply in Greater Vancouver moved up again, now at 6 months (on the border of balanced to buyer’s market). North Vancouver, Burnaby North, New Westminster and Port Moody are the only cities at 4 months supply now while Pitt Meadows remains at 3 months. These areas while technically in seller’s market conditions are showing signs of shifting closer to a balanced market. The number of detached sales in Port Moody dropped down to 6 in June, from 16 in May.
New listing totals declined in Greater Vancouver; much like the number of sales. After seeing 7,229 in April, and 6,484 new listings in May, the total for June dropped down to 5,821. Much like the cool spring weather, maybe some heat in the summer will warm up the market for buyers after sellers ignited the listing counts.
While the number of new listings in June were less than May, they were still higher than the total of 5,468 that came out in June 2023 and the 5,410 that came out in June 2022. Total new listings were slightly below the totals of June 2021 which saw 5,981 come on the market in a year with significantly more sales. Pent-up supply continues to feed the new listings surge we’ve seen, and much like the inconsistencies of the real estate market, where and what types of homes come on the market vary. And the increase in new listings has really come in the last 3 months. Year-over-year, active listings are up 41% in Greater Vancouver, with the increase in the last 3 months alone at 35%. What exactly is driving the increase in listings is difficult to pinpoint and is likely a collection of triggers. Be it capital gains changes, tenancy regulation changes, short term rental changes, or elevated interest rates, all are likely motivating owners to list their homes. Not to mention typical moves that have seemingly been on hold over the last two years.
The number of new listings in June were 2% above the 10-year average after May was 7% above the 10-year average and April was 29% above the 10-year average. Not a surprise to see the number of new listings decline in June as sellers prepare for the end of the school year and look to summer holidays and fun. But in comparison to what we’ve seen in the two months prior, June showed less sellers engaging. Could this be the peak of listing activity for 2024? With the spring market typically being the most active time to list, we aren’t likely to see the number of new listings at the same levels in the fall market. Expect to see new listing amounts 20% to 25% less in the fall.
There were 14,180 active listings in Greater Vancouver at month end, compared to 13,600 at the end of May and 12,491 at the end of April. Compared to this time last year, listings are up 41% from the 9,990 at the end of June 2023 – after being up 46% year-over-year at the end of May. This is the highest number of active listings since the fall of 2019, although not at the levels seen in 2012 when there were nearly 20,000 active listings on the market. Detached active listings are up 30% year-over-year, while townhouses are up 52% and condos are up 53%. Since the end of March though, detached active listings are up 39%, while townhouses are up 37% and condos are up 31%. Are detached homeowners feeling the pinch of higher interest rates? Perhaps not in West Vancouver where detached sales jumped to 43 from 34 in May.
The detached market overall in Greater Vancouver jumped up to 8 months supply from 6 – a buyer’s market. Townhomes and condos moved up to 5 months supply from 4 – shifting both to balanced market conditions in Greater Vancouver. There is a wide variance of supply in the market with some areas like North Vancouver sitting with 3 months supply in condos and townhomes and 4 months supply in detached homes, while Vancouver has 8 months supply of detached homes available.
Overall, the trend is a balanced market, how long that remains is what we’ll see through the rest of 2024. Interest rates and economic conditions will feed into the mindset of buyers and provide signals on when to purchase. Those that take advantage before everyone else could find themselves with the best buying opportunity this decade. While prices will fluctuate with supply and demand changes in the market, overall downward pressure on prices could be limited. And for those areas where listing inventory is still low, prices may be firm and be subject to buyer competition.
Here’s a summary of the numbers:
Greater Vancouver: Total Units Sold in June were 2,418 – down from 2,733 (12%) in May, down from 2,831 (15%) in April, up from 2,415 (0.1%) in March, down from 2,988 (19%) in June 2023, down from 2,466 (2%) in June 2022, down from 3,824 (37%) in June 2021, down from 2,497 (3%) in June 2020, and up from 2,098 (15%) in June 2019; Active Listings were at 14,180 at month end compared to 9,990 at that time last year (up 42%) and 13,600 at the end of May (up 4%); New Listings in June were down 10% compared to May 2024, up 6% compared to June 2023, up 8% compared to June 2022, down 3% compared to June 2021, down 2% compared to June 2020, and up 20% compared to June 2019. Month’s supply of total residential listings is up to 6 month’s supply from 5 (balanced market conditions) and sales to listings ratio of 42% compared to 42% in May 2024, 55% in June 2023, and 46% in June 2022.
For other regions, contact Berna Yazgan
